Sunday, December 03, 2017

Ariel Behar: ISIS's Fall Means Fewer Terror Deaths As Jihadis Adjust, IPT Analysis Shows - The Investigative Project on Terrorism

About The Investigative Project on Terrorism

The IPT accepts no funding from outside the United States, or from any governmental agency or political or religious institutions. Tax deductible contributions should be made to its fund-raising arm, the Investigative Project on Terrorism Foundation, a 501(c)(3) tax-exempt organization.The Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT) is a non-profit research group founded by Steven Emerson in 1995. It is recognized as the world's most comprehensive data center on radical Islamic terrorist groups. For more than two decades, the IPT has investigated the operations, funding, activities and front groups of Islamic terrorist and extremist groups in the United States and around the world. It has become a principal source of critical evidence to a wide variety of government offices and law enforcement agencies, as well as the U.S. Congress and numerous public policy forums. Research carried out by the IPT team has formed the basis for thousands of articles and television specials on the subject of radical Islamic involvement in terrorism, and has even led to successful government action against terrorists and financiers based in the United States.
Founder and executive director Steven Emerson is an internationally recognized expert on terrorism and national security and author. Consulted by the White House, National Security Council, FBI, Justice Department, Congress and intelligence agencies, Mr. Emerson is in great demand as one of the most astute, insightful and knowledgeable experts in the world today on the threat and prospects of militant Islamic terrorism. He has been quoted in more than 500 news articles and has appeared frequently on network television. His 2002 best-selling book, American Jihad: The Terrorists Living Among Us, provides the first context and understanding for how one of the most notorious terrorist groups in the world could have plotted the worst terrorist attack on American soil without detection or scrutiny by American authorities.

What others say about Emerson and the Investigative Project on Terrorism:



"Steve and the Investigative Project on Terrorism have done critically important work for so many years. I've relied on the research and publications that he's done, [and] I know many members of Congress have. If the IPT did not exist, our national security would have been eviscerated by now."
John Bolton, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
"If not for the IPT the militant Islamists and their cohorts will succeed in promoting their dangerous agenda...IPT has been working for decades, literally, to study and to report on these activities and to provide this information, both to the public and to those in the government. We owe the IPT a debt of gratitude that can never be repaid. The very least we can do is give them the fuel to fight this battle for all of us. For if they lose, we all lose. And when they win, we all win. "
Michael Mukasey, Former Attorney General of the United States
"The IPT is by far the most invaluable resource on radical Islam in the United States, if not the world. Its continued existence is absolutely imperative for the safety of this country. I have received more sensitive information about the activities of radical Islamic group operating in the U.S. from the IPT than I have received from the FBI, CIA, Department of Justice, and NCTC combined."
Frank Wolf, Former U.S. Representative, R- VA and Chairman of the FBI Appropriations Subcommittee
"The Investigative Project on Terrorism is critical to our nation's security. There is no other non-governmental group that has better intelligence or data on the threat to the United States and our allies. Making do with a bare bones budget, the IPT is a national treasure whose influence and achievements are unparalleled."
Pete Hoekstra, Former U.S. Representative, R-MI and Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
"[The Investigative Project] was a decade ahead of its time in focusing on the terrorist threat to the United States and to our homeland from Islamic extremism..."
U.S. Representative Brad Sherman, D-CA
United States House of Representatives
Committee on International Relations: Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights
Subject: Preventing the Entry of Terrorists Into the United States
February 13, 2004
Steve Emerson's Investigative Project on Terrorism is the most important source of information to me and many members of Congress on radical Islam and terrorism. They are a true national asset and treasure. Without their information, we would be much more insecure and endangered. I and so many thousands of our law enforcement and national security advisors consider them to be absolutely critical to our security and those of our allies like Israel. It would be a national security nightmare for the IPT not to have the resources it needs to carry out its mission in exposing and identifying the threat from stealth and violent jihadists. Steve Emerson and his team are true national heroes."
Sue Myrick, Former U.S. Representative, R-NC and Chairman of the Congressional Anti-Terrorism Caucus
"When FBI said there were no Web sites in the U.S. that were recruiting jihadists for training in Afghanistan or soliciting money for terrorist front groups, I asked Steve Emerson to check. Emerson had written the book American Jihad, which had told me more than the FBI ever had about radical Islamic groups in the U.S. Within days, Emerson had a long list of Web sites sitting on servers in the United States. I passed the list to Justice and the FBI..."
Richard A. Clarke, Former Chief Counter-Terrorism Advisor for the National Security Council, Author of Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror.
"Steven Emerson's Investigative Project on Terrorism, a not-for-profit research group, repeatedly told me things about terrorists on the web and terrorists in the United States that neither the CIA nor the FBI knew. Often he was right."
Richard A. Clarke in Your Government Failed You
"The Investigative Project has been one of the most important sources of accurate and timely information on the real goals and objectives of the wide spread and powerful Islamist movement."
Oliver "Buck" Revell, Former Associate Deputy Director-Investigations, FBI
"Steve Emerson and the Investigative Project (IP) do a really terrific job and the IP is a good repository for information. My experience with the IP is that they have been very methodical and very detail oriented in developing their information. They can look at an organization, particularly a complex organization and through public source information identify potential terrorist threats and possible links to terrorism."
Dennis Lormel, Former Chief of Terrorist Financing Operations at the FBI.
"Gathering information, the gathering of intelligence information about these terrorists organizations is the single most critical thing that we can do to prevent the next act of terrorism occurring in this country and to me the hallmark and characteristic of the Investigative Project is that they are truly a unique institution in the private sector doing a very important job that nobody else does."
Steven Pomerantz, Former Chief of Counterterrorism at the FBI
"Steve has been on the cutting edge of this for many years and if you look back over time and take a hard evaluation of the things he has accomplished and the kind of information he has made available to the public, the Congress, and to law enforcement, I think he has done an extremely valuable service."
Bob Blitzer, Former Counterterrorism Chief at the FBI
"....Emerson was helpful in preparing to cross-examine defense witnesses in the [1993 World Trade Center bombings] case....He's a valuable source of information and knowledge. And in terms of trying to find places to look for evidence, he's a very good person to talk to. He's got a lot of insight."
Andrew McCarthy, Former Assistant U.S. Attorney who prosecuted the 1993 World Trade Center bombings
"I just wanted to take a moment to thank the IPT team for the excellent product. I use much of your material in providing Intel Reports and training for my superiors and subordinates. The layout of the articles is logical and the content thorough. Thanks again for helping fight the war on terrorism!"
Sgt. Julio R. Piner, Supervisor, Miami Police Dept, Special Investigations Section, Intelligence & Counterterrorism Unit


ISIS's Fall Means Fewer Terror Deaths As Jihadis Adjust, IPT Analysis Shows

by Ariel Behar
IPT News
November 28, 2017

The fall of ISIS's physical caliphate is likely to create a shift in radical Islamic terrorism, an Investigative Project on Terrorism (IPT) analysis of data from the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and the Responses to Terrorism (START)'s Global Terrorism Database (GTD) finds.
Fewer people may be killed in radical Islamic terror attacks, but the terrorists will seek new safe havens and adapt their online strategies to maintain a virtual caliphate.
From the data, five phases were identified. The first phase from 2001-2006 saw on average 2,500 fatalities globally. Phase two from 2007-2011 saw an average of 3,200 global fatalities. In phase three, 2012-2013, there was an annual average of 9,500 global fatalities, and in phase four, 2014-2016, an exponential spike in fatalities showed an average annual of around 27,500 global fatalities. Now that the caliphate is finally collapsing, the fifth phase, according to the IPT, will start to see a decline in annual fatalities globally.
The ideology that drove the caliphate's creation has not been eliminated, which suggests that jihadists will find new methods to terrorize the global community. Radical Islamists will use cyberspace to create a virtual caliphate in order to spread their parasitic ideology.
Last weekend's devastating ISIS attack on a Sufi mosque in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula shows that the terrorist group maintains the ability to carry out large-casualty attacks despite the loss of a home base.
Despite that, we still expect to see a drastic decrease in global fatalities especially in the territory of the almost-defeated caliphate in Iraq, Syria, and parts of Libya now that the ISIS-foothold in those countries has been destroyed. The Afghanistan/Pakistan region, however, will continue to see extremely high fatalities because of its weak terrain and its ineffective central governments. Other countries with weak central governments and significant Muslim populations in the Sahel and Maghreb in Africa as well as in Southeast Asia will also start to see a spike in radical Islamist terrorism. Lastly, countries in the West will continue to see terrorism spread, especially since attacks in the West are of great propaganda value to these jihadists.
Radical Islamic terrorism is advancing. These extremists are developing new tools in order to terrorize the global community to spread their Islamist ideology. Until 2016, fatalities as a result of Islamist terrorism were increasing rapidly. That appears to be over with subtle increases in areas with weak central governments, high Muslim populations, and countries where attacks prove significant propaganda value. The world should celebrate the collapse of the ISIS-established caliphate. But this next phase is not to be underestimated.
Read the full report here.