Friday, April 28, 2017

French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory - Breitbart News Network

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http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/28/french-physicist-maths-le-pen-victory/

French Scientist Who Predicted Trump and Brexit Says the Maths Adds up for a Le Pen Victory

by CHRIS TOMLINSON 28 Apr 2017
According to French physicist Serge Galam, a victory for populist anti-mass migration presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is entirely possible due to a phenomenon known as differentiated abstention.
Professor Galam, who works as a research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), says the science proves the possibility of a Le Pen victory, SFR reports.
“Differentiated abstention” is the key, according to Galam, who defined the term as: “The gap between the vote intention declared in the polls and the actual vote.”
Galam says it is incredibly unlikely that those who voted for Le Pen in the first round of the French presidential elections last Sunday will vote for Macron, guaranteeing her a sizeable base. He also said it is unlikely all those who oppose Le Pen are guaranteed to support her opponent Emmanuel Macron who is unpopular with far left and conservative voters.
“With less than 50 per cent of voting intentions, Marine Le Pen can end up with more than 50 per cent of the votes cast,” Galam said.
Serge Galam has a history of accurate predictions over the last two years. In June of 2016, he correctly predicted the Leave campaign would win the Brexit vote. In November, he predicted Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidency, and recently predicted that popular French politician Alain Juppé would lose the Republican primary.